Research

How do state officials evaluate the risk of international terrorism and insurgency? Existing explanations predict that state officials rely on observable behaviors of strength to guide threat assessments, but these indicators often serve as poor proxies...

Counterinsurgency campaigns led by foreign powers are often wrought with successive failures to adapt to threats posed by non-state adversaries. Why do policymakers face barriers to learning in counterinsurgency? I introduce a new theory of...

This research note examines a key implication of informational theories of crisis bargaining—that asymmetric adversaries generate more uncertainty than symmetric ones—through an empirical analysis of 188 National Intelligence Estimates. Using sentiment...

From a historical perspective, presidents have frequently directed the use of military force without explicit permission from Congress. Yet, presidents still court legislative approval on select occasions. Why do presidents sometimes seek congressional...

Why do states no longer declare war? In a provocative analysis, Tanisha M. Fazal argues that states stopped declaring war to evade the costs of complying with the growing body of international humanitarian laws. We argue instead that post-1945 normative...